2009 Nobel Prize Predictions (amv)

ERNST FEHR Professor and Director of the Institute for Empirical Research in Economics, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland • Winner of the 2004 Cogito Prize of the Cogito Foundation and the 2008 Marcel Benoist Prize (Switzerland) ESI Rank: top 1% in Economics, 9 highly cited papers in last decade ISI Highly Cited

MATTHEW J. RABIN Edward G. and Nancy S. Jordan Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA • Winner of the 2006 John von Neumann Award and Rajk Laszlo College of Advanced Studies ESI Rank: top 1% in Economics, 4 highly cited papers in last decade

WILLIAM D. NORDHAUS Sterling Professor of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA • Winner of the 2005 Distinguished Fellow Award of the American Economic Association • Ranked 108th in output and 49th in citations, according to Coupe rankings.

MARTIN L. WEITZMAN Professor of Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA • Guggenheim Fellow 1970-1971 and in 1986 was elected Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. • Ranked 35th in output and 56th in citations, according to Coupe rankings.

JOHN B. TAYLOR Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of Economics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA, and Bowen H. and Mary Arthur McCoy Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford, CA, USA • Recipient of the 2005 Alexander Hamilton Award, U.S. Treasury Department and the 2005 George P. Schultz Public Service Award, Stanford University. RePEc ranking 54th as of August 2009

JORDI GALI Professor, Department of Economics, and Director of the Center for Research in International Economics, Pompeu Fabra University, Barcelona, Spain • Winner of 2008 Premi Societat Catalana d¹Economia and recipient in 2008 of the First Prize Award for Best Paper presented at the NBER'S International Seminar on Macroeconomics during its first 25 years ESI Rank: top 1% in Economics, 7 highly cited papers in last decade
MARK L. GERTLER Henry and Lucy Moses Professor of Economics, New York University, New York, NY, USA • 2007-2008 Guggenheim Fellow and 2008 First Prize Award for Best Paper presented at the NBER'S International Seminar on Macroeconomics during its first 25 yearsESI Rank: top 1% in Economics, 4 highly cited papers in last decade ISI Highly Cited

UPDATE: Harvard's 2009 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics Pool

• Robert Barro -10%
• John Taylor - 8%
• Paul Milgrom - 8%
• Jean Tirole - 6%
• Oliver Williamson - 6%
• Martin Weitzman - 6%
• Eugene Fama - 5%
• Richard Thaler - 5%
• Lars Hansen - 4%
• Paul Romer - 4%

You see: Ernst Fehr, no American and not working in the US but in Zürich, is not on the list! Last year, the Harvard indicator did not even have Krugman on its list. Yet, the difference to the Reuters list is striking. BTW, Barro is a Chicago Boy in Harvard ... so perhaps there is some bias ...