Thursday, October 29, 2009

Efficient Market Theory and the Crisis (fg)

Neither the rating agencies' mistakes nor the overleveraging by financial firms was the fault of an academic hypothesis!

From Jeremy Siegel via the Wall Street Journal:
[The academic hypothesis] states that the prices of securities reflect all known information that impacts their value. The hypothesis does not claim that the market price is always right. On the contrary, it implies that the prices in the market are mostly wrong, but at any given moment it is not at all easy to say whether they are too high or too low. The fact that the best and brightest on Wall Street made so many mistakes shows how hard it is to beat the market
Neither the rating agencies' mistakes nor the overleveraging by the financial firms in the subprime securities is the fault of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The fact that the yields on these mortgages were high despite their investment-grade rating indicated that the market was rightly suspicious of the quality of the securities, and this should have served as a warning to prospective buyers.