Friday, October 8, 2010

Nobel Prize predictions 2010 (amv)

Here, the 2010 Thomson Reuters Predictions:

Alberto Alesina: Nathaniel Ropes Professor of Political Economics, Department of Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA USA

Why: for theoretical and empirical studies on the relationship between politics and macroeconomics, and specifically for research on politico-economic cycle

Nobuhiro Kiyotaki: Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Princeton University, Princeton NJ USA

Why: for formulation of the Kiyotaki-Moore model, which describes how small shocks to an economy may lead to a cycle of lower output resulting from a decline in collateral values that creates a restrictive credit environment

John H. Moore: George Watson’s and Daniel Stewart’s Professor of Political Economics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, and Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, London School of Economics, London, England

Why: for formulation of the Kiyotaki-Moore model, which describes how small shocks to an economy may lead to a cycle of lower output resulting from a decline in collateral values that creates a restrictive credit environment

Kevin M. Murphy: George J. Stigler Distinguished Service Professor of Economics, University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Chicago, IL USA, and Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford CA USA

Why: for pioneering empirical research in social economics, including wage inequality and labor demand, unemployment, addiction, and the economic return of investment in medical research, among other topics
 
I think Kiyotaki-Moore would be fine. I would give it to Werner Hildenbrand, Hugo Sonnenschein, and Roy Radner, for obvious reasons. But this will not happen.
 
Check also the market predictions here. Shiller is #3.