Thursday, August 19, 2010

Insights of Global Investors (fg)

It is the shape of such dispersion that strikes us as particularly important. It seems that, wherever we look, the snapshot for “consensus expectations” has shifted: from traditional bell-shaped curves – with a high likelihood mean and thin tails (indicating most economists have similar expectations) – to a much flatter distribution of outcomes with fatter tails (where opinion is divided and expectations vary considerably).

of Richard Clarida, Columbia University and Mohamed El-Erian, CEO of PIMCO, the global player in fixed-income management.

Remember the Camp View and dispersion of inflation forecasts? Feel free to find out more on the camp view, here and here.