Wednesday, September 14, 2011

Inflation expectations, past and present (os)

Just a little work I have done lately. What you see in the upper part is the standard deviation of inflation expectations and in the lower part the mean of the expected inflation. Both graphs are from 2000q1 till 2011q3 on a quarterly basis. The data are taken from the ECB survey of professional forecasters.

As you can see, long term inflation expectations are well anchored, although there has been some frictions (in terms of std. dev.) around 08/09. Also you see a "massive" drop in expectations at roughly the same time. But be aware: The drop in 34 (which is about 2008) means: Expectations in 2008 about what the inflation will be in 2009.

Never the less it seems that after some turbulence, long and short term expectations seem to converge lately, accompanied by a decline in uncertainty measured in terms of the std deviation.